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 3 February  2004

Politics and Macroeconomics

Government Looks At West Kazakhstan Oil Sector Development

The Kazakhstani government last week held a meeting to discuss the development of the oil and gas sector in West Kazakhstan oblast, one of Kazakhstan's largest oil and gas regions, Khabar state television reported. West Kazakhstan oblast Akim Nurgali Ashimov presented the region's industrial and innovation development program to government members.

In his presentation, Ashimov described seven projects that will be carried out in the oblast in the near future. Among the region's main projects are the development of a shipyard to build sea and riverboats up to 200 tonnes, the creation of a gas turbine service center and the construction of an ethyl alcohol production facility (to be built with Japanese assistance).

Government development specialists raised concerns that the region's projects do not meet the requirements specified in the national industrial and innovation program. Akhmetov said the regional administration should ensure that CIS and foreign market demand for services provided at such facilities should be carefully studied. (Khabar)

Government Says Stiffer Environmental Rules On The Way

In 2004 the Kazakhstani government plans to stiffen environmental requirements for subsoil users, particularly oil and gas companies, Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov announced at the collegiums of Environmental Ministry in Astana this week.

The relevant proposals have already been introduced to parliament, and in the near future the legislature is expected to weigh in on the issue of payment of environmental fees and fines to regional budgets, Akhmetov said.

The government began taking a tougher line against subsoil users last year. On January 24 the Environmental Ministry announced that KZT 2 Billion in fines for violations of environmental rules were collected in 2004, including fines against the largest oil projects in the republic, Agip KCO, TengizChevroil and PetroKazakhstan.

Akhmetov supported tough stance taken by the ministry, saying that the oil industry, as Kazakhstan's largest, that must help lift Kazakhstan's environmental practices to world standards. To that end, the government is proposing several amendments to subsoil use laws that would toughen requirements for oil companies. (Khabar)

New National Bank Chairman Officially Named

The Kazakhstani Parliament on Monday unanimously approved the candidacy of Anvar Saydenov for the post of Chairman of the National Bank. Saydenov, who was the nominee of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbaev, was previously the deputy chairman of the bank. Since the start of the year he had served as interim chairman after his predecessor, Grigoriy Marchenko, was named a deputy prime minister.

After thanking the president and parliament for their votes of confidence, Saydenov proceeded to lay down a seemingly firm policy line: the National Bank will not interfere in the tenge exchange rate unless there is the risk of an acute destabilization of the tenge-dollar rate. However, Saydenov noted that the National Bank has been buying up dollars over the past three weeks, and said that "we imagine that we will adhere to a similar policy in the future."

Saydenov said that the National Bank will also keep an eye on other exchange rate changes, such as the dollar-euro rate, that could affect Kazakhstan.

"The National Bank will watch the trends and react appropriately," Saydenov pledged. (Kazakhstan Today & KazInform)

National Bank Forecasts Stabilization Of Tenge-Dollar Exchange

"One can expect the possible stabilization of the tenge-US dollar exchange rate in Kazakhstan, or only slight changes," Kazakhstani National Bank Chairman Ānvar Saydenov said at a press conference held on Tuesday in Almaty.

While the dollar has fallen against the Euro by some 40% over the last two years, the dollar has remained rather stable versus the tenge.

"If to make careful forecast I suppose that in the second half of the year one would observe certain adjustments of dollar," Saydenov predicted. "If we see that a dynamic of that the real, effective exchange rate gets stronger, I suppose that the National Bank will take measures to preserve the competitive ability of our exporters," a hint that the bank would intervene to artificially lower the tenge versus the dollar.

Saydenov refrained from offering forecasts on the world foreign currency market in the near term, saying that there is too little agreement among analysts for him to make a solid prognosis. (Khabar)

Equities

The KASE-Shares index decreased by 6.57% to 141.99 by the end of period on January 28 2004.

Note: KASE-Shares index is based on ask prices for equities in A Listing

In the period between January 15 2003 and January 21 2004, the volume of equity trades at the KASE decreased to USD 5,781,983 from USD 3,535,674 in the previous period. The shares traded during the period were common shares of Almaty Kus (ALKS), Aluminium Kazakhstana (ALKZ), Bank CenterCredit (CCBN), KazChrome (KZCR),  Kazakhmys (KZMS), Temirbank (TEBN), UKTMK (UTMK), ValutTransit Bank (VTBN) and Zerde (ZERD) and preferred shares of ValutTransit Bank (VTBNp). (Irbis)

 

Company

Number of  Shares Sold

Closing Price USD

Change

ALKS

31,600,000

0.07

0.0%

ALKZ

28,121

2.15

+300.0%

CCBN

1,309,129

1.43

0.0%

KZCR

1,807

17.92

+250.0%

KZMS

312

28.62

+40.3%

TEBN

100,005

7.28

0.0%

UTMK

336

42.00

-4.7%

VTBN

2,971

2.51

0.0%

ZERD

10,124,010

0.02

0.0%

VTBNp

742,211

3.23

0.0%

Company News

Oil & Gas

Kazakhstani state oil and gas company KazMunayGas hopes to wrap up negotiations with French oil giant Total for the purchase of a stake in the Kurmangazy offshore field by the French company, KMG President Uzakbay Karabalin said. At the same time, Karabalin seemed to indicate that KMG is in no rush to get a deal done, pegging the completion date of the transaction only at "sometime in 2004."

Karabalin said talks between KMG and Total are on-going. The talks are three-way, with the Kazakhstani government also playing an important role, he said. "We plan to resolve the issue this year," Karabalin said at a press conference in Aktau last week.

Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to develop Kurmangazy on a 50-50 basis in spring 2002. KMG later said it planned to sell part of its stake to a western major, selecting Total in a closed tender in the fall 2003. The Russian partners in the Kurmangazy development are state oil company Rosneft and state international oil company Zarubezhneft, which each hold 25% interests in the project.

According to industry sources, KMG could sell up to half of its stake in the Kurmangazy project - or a 25% stake in the project as a whole – to Total. Total would then be asked to finance half of all exploration expenses (paying in effect for KMG as well). On the Russian side, Rosneft will pay the exploration costs.

Kazakhstani specialists estimate that Kurmangazy holds about 1 billion tonnes of recoverable oil reserves. The cost to develop the field is estimated at about USD 10 Billion. (Interfax)

***

Kazakhstani state oil and gas company KazMunayGas is among the final three bidders for a much sought after stake in Czech oil refining group Unipetrol. As of mid-January, the 63% stake in the Czech refiner was valued at 8.5 Billion Czech crowns, or just under EURO 300 Million.

Unipetrol is the leading refiner in the Czech republic with sales in excess of USD 9 Billion. It controls two oil processing plants, several chemical plants as well and also operates a chain of 320 gas stations.

Some 17 firms and consortia from around the globe initially expressed interest in purchasing the Unipetrol stake, which would also entail assuming responsibility for around EURO 350-400 Million in corporate debt. Among the initial bidders were Russia's Tatneft, KMG, Hungary's MOL, Britain's Royal Dutch/Shell and Poland's PKN in a grouping with US-based ConocoPhillips and Czech Republic-based Agrofert.

Analysts say the strongest bids were submitted by Shell, PKN and MOL. (Reuters & AFX news agency)

***

UzenMunayGas, the production affiliate of state oil and gas company KazMunayGas operating the Uzen oil field in western Kazakhstan, produced some 5.283.5 million tonnes of oil and gas condensate in 2003, 3.2% more than in 2002.

According to KMG President Uzakbay Karabalin, the Uzen field is currently being rehabilitated using World Bank funds so that in 2005 production at the deposit can be ramped up to over 7 million tonnes per year. The Uzen deposit is estimated to hold 190 million tonnes of reserves, Karabalin added.

Another KMG affiliate, EmbaMunayGas, ramped up oil and gas condensate output to 2.631 million tonnes in 2003, 1.2% more than in the previous year. The Emba field contains some 78 million tonnes of reserves.

KMG plans to merge Emba- and UzenMunayGas later this year in order to raise capitalization at the united company and improve investment potential.

As a whole, KMG produced 7.915 million tonnes of oil in Kazakhstan in 2003, while its transport unit KazTransOil shipped 34.2 million tonnes of oil during that period. The national company produces about 16% of total oil output in the republic. (Interfax)

***

"If we can reach an agreement with our Chinese partners, KazMunayGas plans to start construction on an oil export pipeline to China in the summer of 2004, state oil and gas company KazMunayGas President Uzakbay Karabalin announced at a press conference in Aktau this week.

Karabalin called the Chinese market one of the most promising for Kazakhstan. According to the KMG head, in the near future China will suffer from a real fuel shortage, thus justifying the near-term construction of the aforementioned pipeline. Karabalin said the pipeline, which would span around 3,000 kilometers, could be built in two years.

Karabalin is now calling the Atyrau-Kenkiyak pipeline, built by China' s CNPC oil company at a cost of USD 160 Million in 2003, the first leg of the future western Kazakhstan-western China pipeline. The next section would connect Kenkiyak to the Kumkol oil deposit in south-central Kazakhstan via Aralsk. Finally the Kumkol field would be connected to Alashankou in western China via Atasu.

Kazakhstan and China have been talking about building the pipeline for five years, but the talks actually gained momentum late last year as the Chinese side stepped up its efforts to woo the Kazakhstani. KMG says the pipeline will have to carry about 20 million tonnes, roughly a third of Kazakhstan's output in 2006, in order to be profitable. The line will cost an estimated USD 2.5 Billion to build. (RusEnergy)

Banking and Finance

Halyk Bank has backed away from a plan to begin charging a KZT 50 monthly service fee to accountholders after the government intervened asking the bank not to impose such charges.

After learning of Halyk's plans to impose the surcharge on accountholders, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection approached the bank asking them not to impose the fee on accounts used by pensioners to collect their state pensions. Over the half of Kazakhstani pensioners are currently clients of Halyk Bank.

The government maintains that Halyk, though now private, holds a special responsibility to its elderly clients as it was formerly the main state-owned bank. If Halyk decides to re-introduce the service charges, the government said it would likely bear the expense rather than pass it off to pensioners.

According to Deputy Minister of Labor Gulshara Abdykalikova, "at present, a working group has been assigned to calculate the cost of such a proposal into the 2005 budget."

At the same time, Abdykalikova issued a quiet warning to Halyk: she reminded pensioners that they can collect their pensions from any of Kazakhstan's 13 registered commercial banks, none of whom besides Halyk have aired plans to impose fees. (Khabar)

 

Metals and Mining

Russian-Kyrgyz-Kazakhstani joint venture CJSC Zarechnoe will eventually produce up to 500 tonnes of uranium to produce nuclear fuel rods for Russian and foreign nuclear power plants.

The JV was discussed during talks between Russian Atomic Power Minister Alexander Rumantzev and Kyrgyz Prime Minister Nikolai Tanaev in Bishkek last week. The two men agreed on a business plan for the venture and prepared a package of documents to secure a commercial loan for the project.

It will take around two years and some USD 14.5 Million to get Zarechnoe off the ground. Russia has already allocated USD 1.35 Million to the project.

Two stock offerings have been registered. At present, the ownership of the company break's down as follows: Kazakhstan's KazAtomProm holds 45%, Russia's TVEL has 20%, Technosnabexport has 15% and Atomredmetsoloto has 10% while Kyrgyzstan's Kara-Baltin Mining Plant has 10%. (KazInform)

***

Kazakhstan's national nuclear company KazAtomProm last week launched a new processing facility at the "Central" uranium mines in South Kazakhstan oblast. The plant will go on-line this month and will produce its first lot of processed uranium products (U308) in late 2004.

The U308 uranium produced at Central will likely be exported, KazAtomProm sources said. The initial capacity of the plant will be 1,700 tonnes per year, with eventual capacity to reach 2,000 tonnes per year. KazAtomProm spent USD 4.5 Million of its own funds to build the processing facility.

The new facility will only process about half of the uranium extracted at the Central mines, while the remainder will be sent, as presently, to the Ulba Metallurgy Plant in East Kazakhstan oblast, which is also owned by KazAtomProm. (Interfax)

***

Kazakhstani gold mining company Charaltyn will in the next few month launch production at the Zhaima gold field in East Kazakhstan oblast.

"In Spring 2004 the company will launch production at Zhaima, one of 12 deposits in the Charsk gold belt. Zhaima will be developed according to latest technologies using processes that considerably reduce expenses and pollution," Charaltyn President Baltabek Mukashev boasted at a press conference last week.

According to Mukashev, development of the Zhaima field will take place in phases. If the work is productive in the first stages, investment and the scope of exploration will be racked up over time. On the whole, Mukashev believes the reserves of the Charsk belt could enable Charaltyn to "considerably" increase production. In 2004, he specified, Charaltyn expects to boost production to 2-2.5 tonnes of gold, versus 1.2 tonnes in 2003. (Interfax)

***

The Aktobe Ferroalloys Plant, a unit of major metals group KazChrome, has received an ISO 9001:2000 quality management certificate, according to the KazChrome press release.

The Aktobe Ferroalloys plant has been working on obtaining the international quality control certificate since early 2002. During this time, the plant retrained top and middle managers and revised organizational charts. In December 2003, the plant underwent and passed a management audit by German certification company TUF-South Germany.

KazChrome said that the acquisition of the certificate will not stop the plant from future developing its management system at the facility. The company is committed to improving the current system, it said in a press release. (KazInform)

***

Major Kazakhstani coal producer Bogatyr Access Komir, a unit of US-based Access Industries, will invest over KZT 3 Billion to technically upgrade its Bogatyr and Severnyi mines in northern Kazakhstan.

The company will switch the Bogatyr mine to an electric railway system this year as well as launch a new unit to improve the quality of coal produced at the field. The Bogatyr mine produces some 14 million tonnes of coal annually.

The Severniy mine produces roughly 3 million tonnes per year. The mine is being transitioned to a motor railway and new excavators and dump trucks are being purchased. (KazInform)

***

Kazakhstani metals company Yuzhpolimetal is teaming up with Tajikistan 's Adrasman Mining and Processing Plant to found JV Adrasman, which will produce lead ore products, the Yuzhpolimetal press service stated.

Yuzhpolimetal will invest its own funds, some USD 7 Million of them, to restart production at the Adrasman plant in Tajikistan. In the near future the South Kazakhstan plant hopes to begin receiving processed sulphide concentrate from the Tajik plant. From these 14,000-16,000 tonnes of lead and 40-50 tonnes of gold and silver alloys will be smelt annually, Yuzhpolimetal officials said.

In 2002 Yuzhpolimetal produced KZT 4 Billion worth of goods, but ramped up output considerably to KZT 4.7 Billion for January-August 2003 alone. The company expects production to total over KZT 7 Billion in 2004. (Interfax)

***

Viktor Til has been named the new general director of Kazakhstani metals giant KazChrome by the board of directors, the company's press service told Interfax. Previously Til was Vice President of KazChrome and Director of its Donsk Mining Plant unit.

Former Donsk Mining Plant Deputy Director Saidakbar Mavlankhodzhaev has been named the interim director of that facility. Former vice-president and general director of KazChrome Bolat Svyatovis was relieved of his duties in conjunction with a transfer to a new post.

KazChrome unites the Aktobe and Aksu Ferroalloys Plants as well as the Donsk Mining Plant. The company is part of the Eurasian Industrial Association, an industrial group linked to the Eurasian Bank financial group. (Kazakhstan Today) 

Power

US-based energy giant AES Corp. plans to invest over USD 100 Million to repair and upgrade its giant AES-Ekibastuz coal-fired power plant.

According to an AES press release, the USD 100 Million will be allocated over a period of eight years. The goal of the investment project will be to boost capacity at the plant from 1,200 MW to 4,000 MW. In order to achieve this goal, the company has planned out a schedule by which one energy block will be totally rehabilitated every two years.

The AES Ekibastuz GRES has eight energy blocks, each with a capacity of 500 MW.

AES executives from the United States and Europe will be flying in to Ust-Kamenogrosk for a meeting to discuss the development plans with executives of their Kazakhstani affiliates.

"The approval of the investment plans and plant development projects illustrates AES' confidence in the future economic development of Kazakhstan, the growing needs of the energy sector and the export potential of this market," Interfax reported citing the AES press release.

AES operates the Ekibastuz GRES in Pavlodar oblast as well as a number of heating and energy plants in East Kazakhstan oblast. (Interfax)

Transport and Telecommunications

Kazakhstani-Turkish cellular telecommunications provider GSM-Kazakhstan, operator of the K'Cell and Aktiv trademarks, plans to invest over USD 70 Million into equipment and network development in 2004, up from USD 66 Million last year, GSM-Kazakhstan Marketing Department head Maya Miridzhanashvili announced at a press conference in Almaty this week.

According to Miridzhanashvili, the GSM-Kazakhstan network now operates in over 100 cities and towns in Kazakhstan. The company installed 226 of a planned 600 base station improvements in 2003. Some 400 more base stations will be installed in 2004, she added.

In order to improve customer satisfaction, GSM-Kazakhstan is also nearing a deal with rival cellular provider Kar-Tel (operator of K-Mobile) to enable users of each company to exchange SMS text messages free of charge.

GSM-Kazakhstan has over 1 million subscribers, or 70% of the total cellular market in Kazakhstan. The company also provides international roaming services through 186 partner-operators in 86 countries. The company is 51% owned by Fintur Holdings BV (which in turn is 60% owned by Sonera and Turkcell. The other 49% interest in GSM-Kazakhstan is owned by state telecommunications company Kazakhtelecom. (Golden Eagles Partners)

Money Markets

KZT/USD market rate dynamics during the week

Currency Rates as of 2 February 2004

Currency ForEx market rate National Bank rate
KZT/USD 139.42 139.41
KZT/EUR No transactions 172.41

Note: Some of the information quoted in this issue has been provided for us by Golden Eagle Partners. For more information on those articles, please contact: jmann1@AOL.com or newswire@ges.kz

For more information and other publications please contact Yelena Kovalenko at +7 (3272) 596 708

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