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 10 February  2004

Politics and Macroeconomics

Collapse Of Oil Price Wouldn't Create A Budget Crisis in KZ, Deputy Pm Says

Even a serious drop in world oil prices wouldn't create a budget crisis in Kazakhstan despite the republic's well known reliance on revenues from its oil sector, First Deputy Prime Minister Grigoriy Marchenko announced at a meeting at the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection on January 30.

At the same time, Marchenko allowed that "if the oil price drops, or there is some other global economic crisis, we shouldn't expect the same rapid rates of salary and pension increases."

Marchenko said the government had the so-called National Fund – which has accumulated about USD 3 Billion in revenues from oil in recent years - to fall back on in the event of an economic crisis.

"The National Fund was created for just such purposes," he noted.

Marchenko also said that Kazakhstani should expect social security and pension reform "not just this year, but within the next several months".

"It could be a heavy workload, but this needs to be done," he concluded. (Kazakhstan Today)

Equities

The KASE-Shares index increased by 10.90% to 157.46 by the end of period on February 4 2004.   

Note: KASE-Shares index is based on ask prices for equities in A Listing

In the period between January 29 2003 and February 4 2004, the volume of equity trades at the KASE decreased to USD 5,296,265 from USD 5,781,983 in the previous period. The shares traded during the period were common shares of Almaty Kus (ALKS), Alyans Bank Kazakhstana (ASBN), Bank CenterCredit (CCBN), Temirbank (TEBN), ValutTransit Bank (VTBN) and Zerde (ZERD) and preferred shares of ValutTransit Bank (VTBNp). (Irbis)

 

Company

Number of  Shares Sold

Closing Price USD

Change

ALKS

7,691,900

0.07

0.0%

ASBN

35,000

50.18

0.0%

CCBN

1,690,520

1.40

-2.5%

TEBN

38,615

7.28

0.0%

VTBN

83,063

2.51

0.0%

ZERD

5,392,605

0.02

260.0%

VTBNp

7,165

3.23

-28.9%

Company News

Oil & Gas

Dave Roberts, the Executive Vice President and Managing Director for Central Asian and the Middle East of British oil major BG plc last week visited West Kazakhstan oblast.

BG owns a 32.5% stake and is co-operator of the giant Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field in West Kazakhstan. Italy's Eni SpA is the other operator for the consortium developing the field, Karachaganak Petroleum Operating BV.

During his visit to West Kazakhstan, Roberts visited the Karachaganak field and met with management at KPO as well as employees at the project. He also toured facilities opened at the field in 2003, notably new units of a giant processing complex and a new workers' camp.

Roberts also met with West Kazakhstan oblast Akim Nurgali Ashimov. Ashimov and Roberts discussed ways to improve and expand relations between BG, KPO and West Kazakhstan oblast. (Kazakhstan Today)

***

The board of directors of Russian gas giant Gazprom will discuss the company's participation in the reconstruction of the major Central Asia-Center gas pipeline reconstruction project in spring 2004, Zarubezhneftegas General Director Valeriy Gulev announced on January 27 in Orenburg, Russia. Zarubezhneftegas is the operator of Gazprom's foreign projects.

The Central Asia-Center gas pipeline is the major gas export route from major Central Asian producers such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to European markets. The pipeline passes via Kazakhstan and Russia, which also both produce large quantities of gas.

The gas pipeline reconstruction project envisages boosting the pipeline's throughput capacity by 2.2 times, which would require the renovation of the entire infrastructure of the line as well as the construction of a new parallel line, Gulev said.

Kazakhstani state gas transport company KazTransGas has said that the Central Asia- Center project could cost upwards of USD 1.5 Billion.

Gulev noted that Gazprom has reached a critical juncture in its Central Asian strategy: "We have two choices: either purchase and transport gas [from Central Asia], or sooner or later [Central Asian] gas will reach Europe via other pipelines and as a result it will disturb the whole balance of prices in Europe."

Gulev noted that Gazprom has reached agreements to purchase up to 80 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan, up to 10 billion cubic meters from Uzbekistan and up to 7 billion cubic meters from Kazakhstan. (Interfax)

***

US-based oil company American International Petroleum has announced the sale of its development rights to the Shagyrly-Shomyshty deposit in Kazakhstan to another New York-based company, PetroCaspian LLC.

PetroCaspian reportedly paid USD 5.05 Million for the Shagyrly development rights. The new owners of the field have promised to arrange for a USD 50 Million credit for the project, which reportedly will require a total investment of about USD 189 Million. (RusEnergy)

***

Major Aktobe-based oil producer CNPC-AktobeMunayGas, operator of the Zhanazhol and Kenkiyak oil and gas fields, plans to ramp up oil production at its fields to 5.3 million tonnes of oil in 2004, the company’s press service stated.

According to CNPC-AktobeMunayGas press service head Galiya Zhaldybaeva, the company produced 4.65 million tonnes of oil in 2003, some 282,610 tonnes more than in 2002. In addition, CNPC-AktobeMunayGas boosted associated gas output to 11.5 million cubic meters in 2003 and sold over 13,000 tonnes of sulphur.

CNPC-AktobeMunayGas, which is majority owned and operated by the China National Petroleum Corp., also plans to launch new wells at its two deposits as well as build a Zhanazhol-Zhem rail link to supply equipment and materials to the fields. (Kazakhstan Today)

***

Major Canadian-based oil company PetroKazakhstan plans to ramp its supply to the Tehran Oil Refinery (Iran) up to 21,000 barrels of oil per day in the next several months, the company announced in a statement this week.

"Over the next several months supplies [to the Tehran plant] will gradually reach their contract level of 21,000 barrels of oil per day (1 million tonnes per year)," according to the PetroKazakhstan press release.

PetroKazakhstan announced in 2003 that it had reached a swap agreement with the Tehran Oil Refinery. Under the agreement, PetroKazakhstan will supply the refinery with crude from its Kazakhstani field, while the Canadian company will receive a monetarily equivalent volume of light Iranian crude at Persian Gulf ports in southern Iran. The agreement obviates the need for PetroKazakhstan to transport its crude across at least part of the lengthy Central Asian export routes.

"The agreement enables the company to get maximum price for its crude oil while reducing destination and transportation costs," PetroKazakhstan said in its statement.

PetroKazakhstan sent its first shipment of 26,800 barrels to the Tehran plant in December 2003, Interfax noted. (Interfax)

***

Management at the Atyrau Refinery, one of Kazakhstan's three major oil processing plants, have been sitting on surplus supplies of refined fuel since December 2003 even as prices for oil products have risen dramatically across the republic, a group of minority shareholders alleged at a press conference in Almaty this week.

The shareholders, led by Almaz Company, which owns a 2% stake in the Atyrau plant, accuse Atyrau Refinery management of pursuing narrow commercial interests at the expense of plant shareholders and the public.

According to Almaz President Almaz Kuzhagaliev and Chairman Batyrbek Bizhanov, they became alarmed by the situation at the Atyrau plant after the plant's board of directors scuttled a shareholders' meeting scheduled for January 22.

At their press conference, Kuzhagaliev and Bizhanov called on the majority owner of the Atyrau plant, state oil and gas company KazMunayGas, to replace the existing board and some of the management for their alleged "illegal actions". They accused management of causing losses to shareholders, including KMG, last year through bad deals and shady arrangements. They further alleged that KMG stands to lose USD 3 Million in 2004 that was supposed to go towards the reconstruction of the plant.

"Instead of upgrading the industrial capacities of the refinery, the management are making shady deals to sell gas or diesel," Kuzhagaliev asserted. (KazInform)

***

Kazakhstani-owned oil and gas company Nelson Resources Ltd. saw its shares rise 14% on the Toronto Stock Exchange on February 3 in anticipation that the company would soon complete its acquisition of a 50% stake in the North Buzachi oil field in Mangystau oblast.

Last month, Nelson bought a 35% stake in the North Buzachi field from CNPC International, an affiliate of the China National Oil Company. That stake rose to 50% on Tuesday once approved by the requisite governments and a payment of USD 32 million was made by Nelson to CNPC International.

"The addition of this major asset to our company represents a significant stride forward in our strategy to be a major independent oil producer in Kazakhstan," Nelson Chairman and Chief Executive Nick Zana said.

Nelson is also involved in a partnership with state oil company KazMunayGas, Kazakhoil-Aktobe LLP, to develop the Alibekmola and Kozhasay fields in western Kazakhstan. (Reuters)

***

Former Canadian Prime minister Jean Chretien has been named a special advisor to the board of directors of PetroKazakhstan, the company announced in a press release this week.

Chretien will advise the board on international relations issues, drawing on his ten years as Canadian PM as well as his earlier service in the Ministries of Justice, Finance and Energy and Mining.

In addition to Chretien, the PetroKazakhstan board announced the appointments to the board of 65-year old Danish entrepreneur Jan Bonde Nielsen and 52-year old Canadian lawyer Jean-Paul Bisnere.

Bonde Nielson is Chairman and owner of Green Oak Holdings, which runs various oil-related business projects in Europe and Asia.

J.P. Bisnere is a senior corporate partner at the firm of Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg, which is headquartered in Toronto. He is one of Canada' s leading securities lawyers.

According to financial experts in Toronto, Jean Chretien could help smooth relations between the Canadian oil company and the Kazakhstani government. PetroKazakhstan has had disputes with the government in the past over tax and monopoly issues (stemming from the company's ownership of one of Kazakhstan's three major oil refineries). (Golden Eagle Partners)

Banking and Finance

According to its preliminary financial results, the net profit of major Kazakhstani private commercial CenterCredit Bank increased by 73% in 2003 and totalled KZT 1.237 Billion, the bank press service stated.

CCB assets increased by 62% up to KZT 82.7 Billion, while the bank's equity capital rose by 75% last year to total KZT 10.8 Billion on January 1, 2004.

In compliance with its development strategy, CCB intends to continue rendering active support to small and mid-sized business and Kazakhstan's middle class. For this purpose, in 2004 bank plans to allocate considerable resources to improve infrastructure and the quality of services. Notably, the bank spent some KZT 75 Million in 2003 to open 25 cash offices in Kazakhstan. (Kazakhstan Today) 

Manufacturing

Construction of a major new electrolysis plant is slated to begin near Pavlodar this year.

The state-owned Kazakhstan Development Bank will fund the first stage of construction of the new plant, KDB President Kambar Shalgimbaev announced on Monday. The first phase is expected to cost about USD 300 Million, of which USD 100 Million will be provided by the KDB, and take about 3 years to complete. Financing for the remaining USD 200 Million for the project will be organized by the Eurasian Industrial Association, also known as the Eurasian Bank financial-industrial group, which will eventually manage the finished plant. Overall, the construction project is expected to cost nearly USD 1 Billion and take 8-10 years to complete. Once the first phase is complete the plant will be able to produce 60-66,000 tonnes of aluminium per year. After the second phase that volume will rise to 120,000 tonnes and after the third phase – 240,000 tonnes. (Interfax)

 

Metals and Mining

LNM Group, the international steel giant that has invested USD 1 Billion into Kazakhstan's giant Ispat-Karmet steel plant in Karaganda over the past eight years, now plans to build a pipe plant to serve the oil and gas industry in the city of Aktau.

LNM Group Chairman Lakshmi Mittal, who was in Astana for talks with Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbaev this week, made the announcement during his visit.

Over the next four years, LNM Group will invest USD 450 Million in Kazakhstan, much of it to build the pipe plant in Aktau, Mittal said.

The company is also continuously taking measures to improve output quality at Ispat-Karmet, he added. (Khabar)

Power

The city of Kentau is looking into the construction of a single heating plant in the city, South Kazakhstan oblast Energy and Public Utilities Department senior specialist Tatyana Zorina stated last week.

In the 1990s, Kentau embarked on an ill-fated plan to install 196 mini-boilers at an expense of KZT 200 Million throughout the city to provide heat. That plan was thwarted by high fuel prices, so the city and oblast were forced to subsidize heating; thus Kentau residents pay KZT 42 per square meter for heat that cost KZT122.40 to generate. The oblast pitches in about KZT 55 Million to heat the city each year.

Kentau authorities are looking at two heating plant projects. One would cost KZT 750-800 Million and would build a central coal-boiling house with the capacity to produce 60 gigacalories of heat per hour. The second project, proposed by Italian firm Team Engineering, would involve the construction of a KZT 2.5 Billion plant to produce 22 MW/h of both heat and electric energy, according to Zorina. (Kazakhstan Today)

***

Kazakhstan's Eurasian Energy Corporation (EEC) has been awarded ISO 9001-2000 quality management certification, Interfax reported. Axel Henning Stepchen of German certification company TUEV presented the certification documents to EEC President Abduazim Rustambekov at a ceremony in Pavlodar this week, the EEC press service said.

The EEC is the first Kazakhstani energy company to receive ISO 9001-2000 certification. The company decided to pursue the certification route about 18 months ago in order to improve efficiency. The certification is valid for three years, with an inspection each year.

The EEC, which is a subsidiary of the Eurasian Bank financial-industrial group, operates the Vostochniy coal mine, the Aksu TETS and an industrial repair unit. In 2003 the plant produced some 9.35 billion kW/h of energy, 21.7% more than during the previous year. (Interfax)

Transport and Telecommunications

The regional administration of Mangystau oblast is lobbying the Kazakhstani government to help build another Caspian Sea port in the region near the town of Kuryk, Interfax reported. Mangystau is already home to the Aktau Seaport, Kazakhstan's main outlet to the Caspian Sea.

"A natural harbour is already at Kuryk. Thus the place is ideal for the construction of a support base for offshore oil operations. If a free economic zone is constructed there, investment will flow and the town could become Kazakhstan's second big seaport town of Kazakhstan," Mangystau oblast Akim Bolat Palymbetov said at a press conference. Kuryk is at present just a sleepy town of 4,800 residents. "Today," said Palymbetov, Kuryk is practically empty. We don't get a penny from there."

Palymbetov said the possibility that the government will bite on the Kuryk offshore operations base idea "seems realistic", since state oil and gas company KazMunayGas has submitted plans to begin exploration drilling in the waters off the coast of the town. (Interfax)

***

Kazakhstani Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov at last tackled an issue that has stymied two of his predecessors over the past five years – the economic difficulties of state-owned airline Air Kazakhstan. At a government meeting this week, Akhmetov "instructed the Minister of Transport and Communication to, within the shortest possible period of time, clear up the situation at Air Kazakhstan and to prepared proposals to resolve the companies' problems," the premier's press service announced.

In September 2002 the government regained full control of Air Kazakhstan, buying 50% in the airline from Kazkommertsbank, which had taken over that stake after the carrier defaulted on a loan several years earlier.

The troubled airline has never enjoyed a long period of success since taking over as the state carrier from an equally troubled predecessor, Kazakhstan Aue Zholy, in 1997. In the past two years, Air Kazakhstan has lost a number of profitable routes to a new state-owned airline, Air Astana, which is a 50-50 JV with Britain's BAE Systems. (Interfax)

Money Markets

KZT/USD market rate dynamics during the week

Currency Rates as of 2 February 2004

Currency ForEx market rate National Bank rate
KZT/USD 139.25 139.28
KZT/EUR No transactions 174.71

Note: Some of the information quoted in this issue has been provided for us by Golden Eagle Partners. For more information on those articles, please contact: jmann1@AOL.com or newswire@ges.kz

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