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10 March  2004

Politics and Macroeconomics

New GSM Frequency Tender Could Hurt Competition In Mobile Market

The Kazakhstani government's recent announcement that it will auction off the rights for the GSM-1800 cellular standard with a 10MHz range to a single company has aroused concerns that the sale of such a large frequency range will stifle competition in the growing mobile communications market.

According to Adil Uvaliev, deputy director of the non-profit Center for the Development of Information-Communication Technologies, "the purchase of the 10 MHz GSM-1800 standard as a single lot by one company – when current mobile operators own only 5 MHz ranges – could lead to the inability of current operators to compete."

Uvaliev added the government's announcement of the tender just one month prior to its due date "suggests that the competition was announced only as a formality, and that the winner has been pre-determined."

Birzhan Kaneshev, chairman of the state Agency for Informatization and Communication, disagreed with Uvaliev's assessment.

"Monopolization [in the mobile market] is impossible, as the GSM-900 technology works on a 5 MHz range, while GSM-1800 is a different standard using a wider range to get higher quality results and different parameters; that is why its technologies are based on a range of 10 MHz," Kaneshev said.

Kazakhstan currently has two major cellular providers using the GSM-900 standard: GSM Kazakhstan (a joint venture between Kazakhtelecom and Turkey's Turkcell which operates the K'Cell and Aktiv networks) and Kar-Tel (which operates the K-Mobile and Excess trademarks. (Interfax)

Gold And Currency Reserves Up 1.4% In February

Kazakhstan's gold and currency reserves, including the National Fund, totaled USD 9.232 Billion at the end of February, up 1.4% from the end of January, according to the National Bank press release.

The National Bank's own gold and currency reserves were up 2% in February to total USD 5.545 Billion. The National Fund, which re-invests revenues from oil and gas production in Kazakhstan, rose by USD 21 Million, from UDS 3.666 Billion to 3.687 Billion during the past month.

The National Bank's currency reserves rose 2.55% in February to total USD 4.859 Billion, while net gold reserves were down 2.08% to USD 687 Million. (Interfax)

Inflation In Kazakhstan Slows To O.5%

The pace of growth of consumer prices in Kazakhstan in February 2004 slowed to 0.5%, from 0.7% in January.

The republic is on pace to somewhat exceed 2003 inflation, when the consumer price index rose by 6.8%, though the Kazakhstani government has forecast average annual inflation in 2004 to be just 5.4%. (Kazakhstani Statistics Agency)

Money Supply Falls In Kazakhstan

The amount of money in circulation in Kazakhstan at the end of January 2004 stood at KZT 231.2 Billion, down 3.2% from the previous month.

"The fall was primarily due to seasonal factors," National Bank Chairman Anvar Saydenov told reporters this week.

The total money supply in Kazakhstan was practically unchanged in January, Saydenov pointed out, standing at KZT 969.8 Billion at month's end. Likewise, the external assets of Kazakhstan's banking system grew by 8.6% in January, but this movement was compensated by a fall in internal assets of 7.2%, he noted.

Deposits in Kazakhstani banks grew by 1% in January to total KZT 738.7 Billion.

The decline of the amount of money in circulation, coupled with the rise in deposits in banks, meant that the share of bank deposits in Kazakhstan's total money supply rose from 75.4% to 76.2% over the course of the month. (Interfax)

Equities

The KASE-Shares index decreased by 8.81% to 166.20 by the end of period on March 3 2004.  

KASE-Shares index and weekly volume of trades.

Note: KASE-Shares index is based on ask prices for equities in A Listing

In the period between February 26 and March 3 2004, the volume of equity trades at the KASE decreased to USD 2,025,604 from USD 3,017,786 in the previous period. The shares traded during the period were common shares of Bank CenterCredit (CCBN), Kazakhmys (KZMS), Rahat (RAHT) and Temirbank (TEBN). (Irbis) 

Company

Number of  Shares Sold

Closing Price USD

Change

CCBN

1,257,365

1.60

-9.0%

KZMS

4,916

22.16

-13.2%

RAHT

100

0.57

0.0%

TEBN

12,395

7.31

0.0%

Company News

Oil & Gas

In a press release issued by the international oil company Royal Dutch/Shell, the Managing Director and head of the exploration and operation sector Walter van de Waiver asserted, "Kashagan is a major project, which will bring profit to its shareholders in the coming decades."

On Wednesday, the Kazakhstani national energy company KazMunayGas and the international consortium Agip KCO approved the budget plan for project realization. By 2010, Agip KCO plans to produce up to 450,000 barrels of oil per day at Kashagan, or 21 million tonnes annually. The consortium further plans to increase oil production in 2013 up to 900,000 bpd or 42 million tonnes a year, and plans to reach its maximum level of production- 56 million tonnes by 2016.

Total development costs for the deposit are estimated at approximately USD 29 Billion. W. Waiver noted that Shell's decision to continue with Kashagan development marks the third deposit in the CIS region that is central to the company's regional development plans, in addition to the development of the Sakhalin-2 deposit in Russia and the Salym deposit. W. Waiver noted, "On the whole, we hope that the Caspian and the Commonwealth of Independent States will become one of the most important centers for Shell's investment activity. We already have verifiable results in our attempts to realize this strategy."

In addition to Kashagan and pursuant to the PSA, the consortium's contract territory includes three more oil deposits: Kalamkas, Aktoty, Kayran. All 4 of these structures consist of 11 offshore blocks, occupying an area of 6,000 square kilometers. (Interfax)

***

Kazakhstan's state-owned oil company KazMunayGas and Anglo-Dutch oil major Royal Dutch/Shell plan to jointly bid in the second round of a tender for the rights to a 63% stake in leading Czech petrochemical company Unipetrol AS.

According to Kazakhstani Minister of Energy Vladimir Shkolnik, executives from KMG and Shell are already studying financial information on Unipetrol.

Shell, Polish refining company PKN Orlen and oil and gas company MOL Rt were all included on a short list of finalists after a first round of bidding for the Unipetrol stake. The value of the Czech government's 63% stake is estimated at around EURO 500 Million.

KMG was not included on the short list for participation in the second round of bidding, which was announced on January 22, 2004, though it had been considered one of the favourites to acquire the Unipetrol stake. (Kazakhstan Today)

***

Shareholders in two subsidiaries of state oil and gas giant KazMunayGas - EmbaMunayGas and UzenMunayGas - formally approved KMG's plans to merge the two companies at a general meeting of shareholders. The shareholders' meetings were conducted concurrently late last week in Atyrau and Zhanaozen (Mangystau oblast), where the two subsidiaries are based.

"A transfer act and agreement on the merger of JSC EmbaMunayGas and UzenMunayGas were approved; the persons authorized to sign these documents were designated and a decision to annul the sale of shares of each of these entities in accordance with the law was passed," KMG's press service announced on March 1.

At the EmbaMunayGas meeting shareholders owning a combined 86.6% stake in the company were in attendance, while at the UzenMunayGas meeting the shareholders in attendance own a 90.4% stake in that company. The decision to approve the merger was "unanimous", KMG said.

KazMunayGas announced plans to merge the two production subsidiaries in the fall of 2003 as a means of cutting costs and improving the efficiency of its production operations. The merged company will have the second largest oil reserves base in Kazakhstan with 275 million tonnes and will see its capitalization increase by more than 3 times that of EmbaMunayGas alone (or 1.5 times that of UzenMunayGas).

In 2004 KMG believes that the merged company will take home more than KZT 6.5 Billion in net profits. (Interfax)

***

The proposed western Kazakhstan-western China pipeline will likely be extended on the China side to the Dushanzi Refinery in Xinjiang Province, Kazakhstani state oil company KazMunayGas President Uzakbay Karabalin announced this week.

The planned pipeline, which is being built in stages will eventually run along the route Atyrau-Kenkiyak-Atasu-Alashankou-Dushanzi, Karabalin explained.

The Atyrau-Kenkiyak portion of the pipeline was built by Chinese oil giant CNPC and put into service last year. At present, KazMunayGas is considering the feasibility study for the Atasu-Alashankou section, to which the Dushanzi section has also been added.

"In December of last year we concluded work on a document entitled "Foundation for Investment". This is now being examined by our company," Karabalin said.

"According to the document, in 2004-04 the Atasu-Alashankou-Dushanzi pipeline will be build," he added.

"Pay attention: while before we said that the terminus of the pipeline would be at Alashankou (on the Kazakhstan-China border), now KazMunayGas and CNPC have decided that the section Alashankou-Dushanzi, in Chinese territory, should be included in the project," Karabalin emphasized.

Dushanzi, which lies about 400 kilometers from the Kazakhstan-China border, is home to an oil processing plant with the capacity to hand 6 million tonnes of crude per year.

Karabalin said that an agreement on the construction of the Atasu-Dushanzi line is likely to be signed in May 2004, with construction set to begin in July or August. The pipeline section - the second of three, with only the crucial middle section missing - would be finished in early 2006, he added.

All told, the western Kazakhstani-western China is expected to be over 3,000 kilometers long and to cost around USD 3 Billion to build. (Interfax)

Banking and Finance

Major Kazakhstani commercial bank Kazkommertsbank (KKB) on February 26 announced the launch of a new on-line procurement site. The site is a joint venture with US-based e-commerce giant Commerce One.

"The new project will help simplify the process of purchasing goods and services - and make it more accessible and transparent - both for the government and private companies in the republic," KKB Managing Director Ermek Shamuratov explained at a press conference.

Shamuratov asserted that use of the on-line system will help reduce government bureaucracy in its procurement offices and help those offices work more efficiently. A particular advantage of on-line procurement is that the buyer can analyse competitive proposals from various suppliers in real time and compare the qualitative specifications of goods, Shamuratov said.

The use of an electronic purchasing system can reduce the buying expenses of private companies by 15%; from the sales side, the savings is even greater by 22%, Shamuratov stated.

Initially the KKB site will only deal with the Kazakhstani market, but in the future the bank hopes to expand the service to cover an international market of goods and services. (Interfax)

***

Kazakhstan's TuranAlem Bank, the third largest bank in the republic, and the Export-Import (Exim) Bank of India signed an agreement for a USD 10 Million credit line to the Kazakhstani bank in Almaty on February 27.

According to TuranAlem Deputy Chairman Saduakas Mameshtegi, the credit line provides funds to allocate loans for up to five years under rates of LIBOR +0.15-0.25% interest.

According to S. Mameshtegi, the loan funds will be used to support medium- and long-term projects involving the import of goods and equipment from India. The loan is expected to help bolster ties between TuranAlem and Indian banks as well as help entrepreneurs from the two countries expand their businesses. (KazInform)

Power

The creation of a long-planned Kazakhstani-Russian energy sector joint venture on the basis of the Ekibastuz GRES-2 power plant in Kazakhstan is in its final stages, Kazakhstani Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov disclosed on the sidelines of the Eurasian Economic Community summit in Almaty last week.

According to Akhmetov, "there remain a few technical details" to be worked out between the two parties, but at this point "there are no doubts that the JV will be created."

Acting Russian Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko affirmed Russia's commitment to "finalize these long, difficult and complicated decisions." He also confirmed that the creation of the energy sector JV was "nearing the finish line."

"If we all have enough energy, then it's probably a question of months," Khristenko said.

Kazakhstan and Russia announced their intention to create a joint venture on the basis of the Ekibastuz plant back in 2002, but negotiations have dragged on since then. According to agreements, Kazakhstan will sell a 50% stake in the Ekibastuz facility to Russian energy giant for USD 250 Million. The money will actually be used to offset Kazakhstani debts for electricity supply from Russia.

The Ekibastuz GRES-2 went into service in 1990. It has the capacity to produce 850 MW of power and employs 1,440 people. At present the power station produces about 12% of the electricity generated in Kazakhstan. (Kazakhstan Today)

Metals and Mining

National atomic and uranium company KazAtomProm's new uranium refining plant in Taukent (South Kazakhstan) turned out its first batch of products, according to KazAtomProm press release.

KazAtomProm launched the plant in Taukent in November 2003. The facility produces uranium protoxide-oxide.

According to KazAtomProm President Mukhtar Jakishev, the company spent USD 4 Million on the construction of the plant. The enterprise is will process 1,500-1,700 tonnes of uranium annually. The quality of the production "will conform to quality expectations in the CIS and in foreign countries," Jakishev said.

KazAtomProm built the Taukent plant to complement its existing uranium refining operations at the Ulba Metallurgy plant. The South Kazakhstan facility will process roughly half of the uranium produced at KazAtomProm mines in southern regions of the republic, while the Ulba plant will refine the remainder.

The new facility was built using state-of-the-art, nearly pollution-free technologies, Jakishev said. The investment made in the plant will begin paying a return in just four years, he added. (Interfax)

***

Major Kazakhstani steel producer Ispat-Karmet, a unit of international steel giant LNM Group, in early March began construction of a pipe plant in Aktau.

The plant will mainly supply to the domestic oil and gas sector, but production could also be shipped from the Aktau Seaport to clients in Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran, Ispat-Karmet Financial Manager V. Vaideshwaran told reporters last week.

The project will initially cost some USD 65 Million to build and will have a capacity to produce up to 60,000 tonnes of pipe per year.

During a meeting with Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbaev in February, LNM Group owner Lakshmi Mittal said his company would invest upwards of USD 450 Million in Kazakhstan by 2008.

At the main steel plant near Temirtau (Karaganda oblast), Ispat-Karmet is in the process of installing a USD 285 Million system for the uninterrupted, round-the-clock production of steel. The plant hopes to launch the first of two of these machines by the end of 2004. (news.kkb.kz)

Transport and Telecommunications

The state Anti-Monopoly Agency this week conducted public hearings on a possible rise in telecommunications tariffs for services offered by JSC Transtelecom.

Transtelecom submitted a bid to raise telecommunications tariffs beginning April 1 in January 2004.

Speaking at the hearings, Transtelecom President Askar Nasenov said that the existing tariffs approved by the agency are unprofitable on certain services. Transtelecom's average tariffs are nearly 50% lower than those of national telecommunications company Kazakhtelecom, Nasenov noted.

A tariff increase would allow the company to modernize its technical capacities, which in the long run would improve services for its clients and the telecommunications industry as a whole. Most of the equipment used by Transtelecom is "morally and physically outdated," Nasenov declared.

A tariff increase would also enable Transtelecom to raise pay for its employees up to industry standards. Currently salaries at Transtelecom are 50-70% below the industry average, Nasenov said.

"We lose specialists because of [the wage discrepancies]. We train them, give them experience, and then [other companies] buy them away from us," Nasenov explained. (Interfax)

 

Money Markets

KZT/USD market rate dynamics during the week

Currency Rates as of 1 March 2004

Currency ForEx market rate National Bank rate
KZT/USD 139.01 139.30
KZT/EUR No transactions 169.85

Note: Some of the information quoted in this issue has been provided for us by Golden Eagle Partners. For more information on those articles, please contact: jmann1@AOL.com or newswire@ges.kz

For more information and other publications please contact Yelena Kovalenko at +7 (3272) 596 708

This publication is intended for investors who are not private or expert investors and should not, therefore, be redistributed to private or expert investors. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell investments. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Kazkommerts Securities Ltd. and/or connected persons may have acted upon or used this material, or the research or analysis on which it is based before its publication. Kazkommerts Securities Ltd. and/or connected persons may from time to time, as principal or agent, make purchases, sales and/or offers to purchase and/or sell in the open market or otherwise and may have a position long or short holding in any investment mentioned herein, or a related investment, as a result of engaging in such transactions.